| 肝窦阻塞综合征与布-加综合征预测模型的构建 |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-14 修订日期：2024-12-25 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：马彩丽,杨大为,杨正汉.肝窦阻塞综合征与布-加综合征预测模型的构建[J].医学研究杂志,2025,54(6):39-43, 81 |
| DOI：
10.11969/j.issn.1673-548X.2025.06.008 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(面上项目)(82372043)；国家临床重点专科建设项目 |
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| 中文摘要:目的 构建肝窦阻塞综合征(hepatic sinusoidal obstruction syndrome,HSOS)与布-加综合征(Budd-Chiari syndrome, BCS)预测模型,并对模型的性能进行初步评价。方法 回顾性收集2016年4月～2024年2月首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院系统首次出院诊断为HSOS的20例患者和BCS的40例患者。提取所有患者的临床资料,采用多因素Logistic回归分析筛选患者发生HSOS的独立危险因素,并据此构建鉴别诊断模型,继而采用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线对模型的效能进行评定。结果 多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,肝静脉狭窄或显示不清(OR=39.441,95% CI:5.928～262.429)是患者发生HSOS的独立危险因素,椎旁静脉开放是肝静脉流出道梗阻患者发生HSOS的独立保护因素(OR=0.026,95% CI:0.002～0.285)。基于上述两项参数建立肝静脉流出道梗阻患者发生HSOS的预测模型,ROC曲线显示模型的曲线下面积(area under the curve, AUC)为0.922(95% CI:0.864～0.991),敏感度为85.0%,特异性为92.5％。结论 肝静脉狭窄或显示不清是肝静脉流出道梗阻患者住院期间发生HSOS的独立危险因素,据此构建的模型可预测HSOS发生风险。 |
| 中文关键词:肝窦阻塞综合征 布-加综合征 危险因素 |
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| Construction of Prediction Models for Hepatic Sinus Obstruction Syndrome and Budd-Chiari Syndrome. |
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| Abstract:Objective To establish a predictive model for hepatic sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (HSOS) and Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS), and to evaluate the performance of the model. Methods From April 2016 to February 2024,20 patients with HSOS and 40 patients with BCS who were first discharged from the Beijing Friendship Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University hospital information system(HIS) system were retrospectively collected. The clinical data of all patients were extracted, and the independent risk factors for HSOS were screened by multi-factor Logistic regression method, and the differential diagnosis model was established accordingly, and then the efficacy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve. Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that hepatic vein stenosis or unclear display (OR=39.441,95% CI:5.928-262.429) was an independent risk factor for HSOS, and paravertebral vein opening was an independent protective factor for HSOS (OR=0.026,95% CI:0.002-0.285). Based on the above two parameters, a prediction model for HSOS in patients with hepatic venous outlet tract obstruction was established. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.922 (95% CI:0.864-0.991), with the sensitivity of 85.0% and the specificity of 92.5%. Conclusion Hepatic vein stenosis or unclear display is an independent risk factor for HSOS in patients with hepatic vein outflow tract obstruction during hospitalization, and the model constructed can predict the risk of HSOS. |
| keywords:Hepatic sinusoidal obstruction syndrome Budd-Chiari syndrome Risk factor |
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