| 应用EPP模型对北京市艾滋病疫情估计和预测分析 |
| 投稿时间：2011-08-29 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：马宁,刘民,郑敏,卢红艳,李桂英,王娟,汪宁.应用EPP模型对北京市艾滋病疫情估计和预测分析[J].医学研究杂志,2012,41(4):30-34 |
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| 基金项目:国家科技重大专项基金资助项目(2008ZXl0001-003) |
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| 中文摘要:目的使用“估计和预测软件包”（estimation and projection package，EPP）模型对北京市艾滋病疫情进行估计并对未来5年的疫情进行预测。 方法利用常规监测资料与文献资料中的数据，运用EPP模型对北京市艾滋病疫情进行估计与预测，并依据专家意见对结果进行调整。 结果北京市艾滋病疫情整体呈现“S”形曲线，1997年前HIV感染率在低水平缓慢增加；1997年后的10余年间，HIV感染率增速加快，存活感染人数迅速增加；新发感染人数在2007年后变化不大，2011年后存活感染者数量增速有所减缓。北京市各类人群中HIV感染率最高的为注射吸毒者和男男性行为者，其他人群的HIV感染率均在0.5%以下。注射吸毒者中的新发HIV感染对北京市早期疫情的贡献最大，男男性行为者在2000年后新发感染数量迅速增长，2003年后超过注射吸毒者，成为新发感染数最大的人群。 结论北京市艾滋病疫情在经历了1997~2007年快速发展的时期后进入了缓慢增长的阶段，未来北京市应将控制性途径传播HIV作为干预重点，特别是对男男性接触人群进行预防干预。 |
| 中文关键词:获得性免疫缺陷综合征 估计和预测软化包 疫情估计 |
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| Estimation and Prediction of HIV/ADIS Epidemic in Beijing:Using Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) |
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| Abstract:ObjectiveTo estimate and predict the epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS in Beijing with estimation and projection package (EPP).MethodsAIDS/HIV surveillance data and published literature data were used as the data sources. ResultsIt showed “S” curve in the number of HIV infection in Beijing. The HIV prevalence was low and grew slowly before 1997. There was a rapidly increase in HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV during the early 2000s. The number of new infection had changed little since 1997 and the increasing of the number of people living with HIV was dreased after 2011. The HIV prevalence was high in IDUs and MSM. The HIV prevalence in other population was less than 0.5%. IDUs were the main source of new infection during the early period. After 2000, the growth of HIV infection among MSM was very fast. It was not until 2003 that MSM had became the largest source of new infection. ConclusionIt was found that after a rapid growth period, the number of people infected by HIV in Beijing increased slowly. It is necessary to take effective preventive measures on sexual transmission, especially the homosexual route，to control the spread of HIV. |
| keywords:AIDS Estimation and Projection Package Epidemic Estimation |
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